The upcoming gubernatorial primary in New Jersey, scheduled for June 10, presents an unpredictable scenario. The absence of a clear front-runner and the removal of distorted ballot designs that favored county party-endorsed candidates have contributed to this uncertainty. Analysts are hesitant to predict the outcome as Republican voter registration increases and dissatisfaction with Democrats grows.
The primary sees six Democratic candidates competing for the nomination, a higher number than usual due to the elimination of the “county line” ballot format. This format previously allowed county political committees to group their preferred candidates into a prominent column, which often guaranteed victory. Last year, former Representative Andy Kim successfully challenged this design for his U.S. Senate race on constitutional grounds. Although legislation is advancing with bipartisan support to formalize this ruling into law, the county line will not be used in this week’s primary.
Julia Sass Rubin, an associate professor at Rutgers’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, noted that in previous elections, candidates would vie for crucial county endorsements and might withdraw if they did not receive them. This year is different, as evidenced by the candidacy of Stephen Sweeney, a former state Senate president who withdrew from a similar situation in 2016.
Rubin also highlighted that county bosses distribute literature indistinguishable from campaign materials. Tuesday’s election will test which strategies prove effective. Regardless of success, Rubin expects county committees to claim effectiveness and adapt accordingly.
“The political machines adapt. They’re about surviving,” Rubin stated. “If this is all very effective for them, they will do the same thing again.” She added that if their preferred candidates do not win, there might be attempts to change rules again to maintain control over outcomes.
“There’s going to be an effort by the political machines to signal that ‘we’re still in control.’ If you don’t need them, they become less relevant … there’s a real incentive for them to demonstrate that they’re all still very powerful.”
