A new report released by the New Jersey State Policy Lab (NJSPL) examines the impact of quality ratings on long-term care in New Jersey, focusing on nursing homes and their response to government standards. The study uses data from 2013 to 2023, analyzing trends through the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) five-star rating system.
The report notes that New Jersey is experiencing a rapid increase in its elderly population, leading to higher healthcare costs and a greater reliance on nursing homes compared to other states. This situation underscores the importance of maintaining high-quality long-term care services.
Researchers created a panel dataset using information from CMS’s Nursing Home Compare, the Certification and Survey Provider Enhanced Reporting database, and the American Community Survey. They assessed how nursing home quality has changed over time and used regression models to predict future performance based on facility and county characteristics.
According to the report: “Our findings reveal that while New Jersey nursing homes generally outperform the national average, their overall ratings have declined significantly since 2020. Nursing homes that exceeded their own historical performance or the county average in the previous year are more likely to sustain or improve their ratings. Conversely, low-performing nursing homes are at a higher risk of further decline if their ratings fall below the county average or show year-over-year deterioration. This analysis enhances understanding of performance-based incentives in shaping nursing home behavior, with insights to guide policymakers and healthcare providers in designing and selecting effective strategies to improve long-term care quality.”
The authors of the report are Miyeon Song, Ph.D., Seung-Ho An, Ph.D., and Jinah Yoo.
