Seasonal hiring in the retail sector is projected to decline to its lowest level since 2009, according to a new report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The firm noted that retailers added 543,100 jobs in the last quarter of 2024, representing a nearly 4% decrease compared to the previous year. For the final three months of 2025, Challenger anticipates that fewer than 500,000 seasonal positions will be created, marking a 16-year low.
Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, explained some of the challenges facing employers: “Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires.” He added: “While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge. This year may be more about doing more with less.”
Several major retailers have announced their seasonal hiring plans. Bath & Body Works intends to hire 32,000 workers for the holidays—including 2,000 for distribution centers—while Spirit Halloween expects to add 50,000 employees. Geodis plans to hire 4,600 workers in warehousing and logistics. Kohl’s has confirmed it will bring on additional seasonal staff but did not specify numbers. Target also updated its seasonal employment plans without providing specific figures; instead, it will prioritize offering hours to current employees and utilize its network of approximately 43,000 “on-demand” team members along with new hires.
Preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that retail employment currently stands at about 15.55 million workers—the highest level since 2018 when there were roughly 15.71 million retail employees. This number typically decreases in September as students return to school and then rises again during the holiday season.
Challenger commented on broader trends affecting both businesses and consumers: “A wave of uncertainty is impacting not just retailers, but also consumers heading into the final quarter of the year,” he said. “With hiring slowing across the board, retailers may hire fewer workers themselves, while many of their shoppers slow spending.”
The trend extends beyond retail into transportation and warehousing sectors as well. Last year these industries added just over 303,700 jobs in Q4—a drop of about 2% from prior years and their lowest fourth-quarter total since 2019. Challenger expects further declines for these sectors in late 2025 as companies increasingly turn toward automation and flexible staffing models rather than traditional spikes in temporary hiring.
“Companies have been steadily restructuring their workforces this year, with a sharper focus on efficiency and technology,” said Challenger. “The traditional seasonal spike in warehousing and shipping jobs is no longer as pronounced, and that shift could be permanent.”
