A recent study commissioned by the Greater Portland Board of Realtors suggests that Portland’s rent control policy has shifted millions of dollars in property tax burden from commercial property owners to residential homeowners. The research, conducted by Wallace Economic Advisers, estimates that rent control reduces the city’s taxable property base by 3.2% to 5.4%, resulting in an annual shift of $6.3 million to $10.6 million in taxes onto homeowners.
These findings come as many Portland residents are receiving new tax bills following a property revaluation that has significantly changed costs for some homeowners. The issue is also under discussion as the Portland City Council considers whether to strengthen the existing rent control policy.
However, Mark Paul, an associate professor of economics at Rutgers University’s school of public policy, has raised concerns about the study’s methodology and conclusions. “We have not seen any high-quality, peer-reviewed research that has shown the type of negative implications this study purports to find,” Paul said after reviewing the report.
Paul criticized the study for lacking independence and rigor, stating, “(This study) is not independent or rigorous. It’s really looking at some basic correlations and then drawing really stark conclusions.” He emphasized that while there may be a correlation between rent control and higher property taxes, causation has not been established.
He illustrated his point with an analogy: “In the summertime, we have more shark attacks, and also in the summertime we have more ice cream sales, but shark attacks don’t lead to ice cream sales. We know these two things are unrelated, but they happen to move in tandem.”
Paul added that rising property taxes are a nationwide trend driven by factors such as inflation, increasing pension obligations, and decreased federal support for education—not necessarily local rent control measures. “I don’t think it’s a bad question to ask, but we don’t have sufficient evidence to date to really show that rent control is having any impact on the tax base,” he said. “For that, I’d need to see a rigorous, peer-reviewed, independently funded study.”
