Rutgers University has released its annual State of the Climate: New Jersey report, providing updated scientific data on climate trends and projections for the state. The report is produced through Rutgers’ New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center and is designed to inform state and local decision-makers, researchers, hazard planning professionals, and residents about ongoing climate changes.
According to the 2024 report, last year was the warmest globally on record and marked the second warmest year ever recorded in New Jersey. This trend continues a pattern of rising temperatures both worldwide and within the state. The report highlights that since 1900, average annual temperatures in New Jersey have increased by about 4 degrees Fahrenheit—roughly double the global average over land and ocean surfaces. Projections indicate that by 2100, New Jersey’s average temperature could rise between 3.7–6.2 degrees above recent norms with moderate greenhouse gas emissions or up to 8.6 degrees higher under high emission scenarios.
The study also addresses sea-level rise along New Jersey’s coastline, which has been increasing at approximately 0.17 inches per year since the early 1900s—amounting to nearly 19 inches in total during that period. This rise is attributed to global factors as well as regional influences such as land subsidence and changes in ocean circulation patterns. Higher sea levels are linked to greater flooding risks during storms or high tides and can impact freshwater resources through salinization.
Previous projections from a Rutgers-led Science and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP), last updated in a 2019 report requested by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), estimate that sea level could rise between 1.7–3.9 feet with two degrees Celsius of global warming or up to 5.1 feet if warming reaches three-and-a-half degrees Celsius by century’s end relative to late nineteenth-century conditions. The NJDEP has again asked Rutgers to update these projections with another STAP review expected later in 2025.
Rainfall patterns are also shifting across New Jersey, with total annual precipitation increasing by about seven percent since the early twentieth century. The most intense rain events now deliver more rainfall than similar past events did, raising concerns about future flooding risk and infrastructure resilience. Looking ahead, moderate emissions scenarios project a further increase of three to thirteen percent in total yearly rainfall by century’s end; extreme one-day rainfalls could grow five to fifteen percent more intense than historical averages.
Extreme weather remains a key concern highlighted by recent events outside but relevant for New Jersey’s future risks: “In September 2024, Hurricane Helene brought extreme rainfall to southern Appalachia (as much as 30 inches of rain in western North Carolina over four days) that caused extensive flooding, property damage, and deaths within the region.” The report warns that similar conditions could occur in New Jersey: “It is expected that warmer global temperatures will exacerbate hurricanes, allowing them to become more intense, decay more slowly, and bring more intense rainfall…The conditions that made Helene so damaging further south can also occur in New Jersey, with Helene being a harbinger of what may be experienced more frequently in the future.”
For prior editions of this series or additional information on climate trends affecting New Jersey visit https://njclimateresourcecenter.rutgers.edu/resources/state-of-the-climate-new-jersey/
