Communities that experience repeated natural disasters are facing difficult choices about whether to rebuild or relocate, according to a recent study by the Society for Risk Analysis. The research highlights differing perspectives between residents and government officials on how public funds should be used to adapt to climate change-related extreme weather.
Researchers from Rutgers University examined Ortley Beach in Toms River, New Jersey—a neighborhood heavily damaged by Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Approximately 200 homes were destroyed during the storm. In the summer of 2022, with assistance from the Ortley Beach Voters and Taxpayers Association, Rutgers scientists conducted interviews with local residents as well as local, state, and federal officials to understand their views on recovery options.
The study focused on whether public resources should support remaining in high-risk areas or facilitate relocation after repeated flood losses. Lead author Laura Geronimo, a 2024 doctoral graduate of Rutgers Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy and current Knauss fellow with NOAA, stated that these findings could apply broadly: “Analysis of the results revealed important findings that could apply to ‘many communities on the frontlines of rising sea level and storm surge – like those in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana,’” said Geronimo.
Despite varying values among stakeholders, all groups identified economic impacts—such as home elevation projects, beach nourishment efforts, or property buyouts—as major concerns. These measures place pressure on both household finances and municipal budgets while challenging authorities to prioritize limited state and federal funding.
Geronimo explained: “The contrast between local officials and residents reflects a broader cultural tension of whether to prioritize property values or human well-being when justifying protection measures.”
The Society for Risk Analysis noted that U.S. coastal regions face increasing risks from flooding alongside continued development. Federal disaster aid programs have often supported rebuilding in vulnerable locations; however, this practice is being questioned amid calls for more community-led relocation strategies such as voluntary buyouts.
“While the Biden administration invested heavily in hazard mitigation, the Trump administration has rescinded billions in funds,” said Geronimo. “Communities like those on the Jersey Shore, which rely heavily on federal transfers, may soon face a fiscal cliff.”
Geronimo concluded: “Our study reveals that residents and officials across all levels of government are concerned about the financial implications of coastal risk strategies – underscoring the need to clearly demonstrate the long-term economic benefits of alternatives like voluntary relocation and to bolster both household and local fiscal resilience to climate and political shocks.”
