Curtis Dubay, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, provided an economic update to Cornerstone members of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce during a virtual briefing on January 29.
Dubay noted that while consumers remain pessimistic about the economy, largely due to higher prices, they are still spending more than anticipated. “Consumers are sour on the economy – mostly due to higher prices – but they continue to spend more than expected,” he said.
He explained that this continued consumer spending contributed to steady economic growth in the second and third quarters of 2025. According to Dubay, part of the disconnect between consumer sentiment and behavior stems from tariffs and broader economic instability experienced last year. As 2025 progressed, more businesses began passing tariff-related costs onto consumers, which led to increased prices and growing concern among households.
Dubay stated that tariffs have raised costs for basic needs such as food, electricity, transportation, and housing. These categories now make up a larger portion of household budgets. As a result, people are allocating more income toward essentials and have less available for discretionary purchases.
Looking ahead to 2026, Dubay projected stable economic growth between 2% and 2.5%, assuming current levels of consumer spending and business investment continue—especially in artificial intelligence. “Status quo” growth is expected if these trends persist.
The New Jersey Chamber of Commerce advocates for business interests across the state by promoting policies that support economic growth and job creation. The organization provides networking opportunities and educational programs for its members while focusing on workforce development through targeted initiatives (https://www.njchamber.com/). It also collaborates with local chambers to address key business issues (https://www.njchamber.com/).
Cornerstone New Jersey is an exclusive membership level within the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce.
