Economic opportunity will increasingly favor workers with higher levels of education and training, according to a new report released Tuesday from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) with support from JPMorgan Chase.
While there will be good jobs on every educational pathway in 2031, only 15% will be available to workers on the high school pathway, compared to 66% on the bachelor’s degree pathway and 19% on the middle-skills pathway.
The Future of Good Jobs: Projections through 2031 is based on CEW’s projections of all jobs and forecasts the number of good jobs in 2031 for workers ages 25–64 by 22 occupational groups and three educational pathways (bachelor’s, middle-skills, and high school). CEW defines a good job as one that pays, nationally, at least $43,000 to workers ages 25–44, at least $55,000 to workers ages 45–64, and a median $82,000.
“We are going through a time of major economic change that carries both promise and uncertainty, including retirements of baby boomers, potential disruptions from generative AI, remaining inflationary pressures and high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and an unsettled national policy landscape,” said CEW Director and lead author Jeff Strohl.
“The good news, though," Strohl added "is we foresee substantially more good jobs by 2031, spurred by greater productivity enabled by new technologies, stronger growth among high-skill/high-wage occupations, and continued political pressure on policymakers to deliver on job quality for workers.”
To help workers make decisions that maximize their likelihood of securing a good job forecasts promising occupations for workers on each educational pathway – jobs that will employ a greater share of workers on a given educational pathway relative to the overall economy. Most jobs available to workers on a given educational pathway in the occupational group must be well-paying jobs in 2031 to be good jobs.
The bachelor’s degree pathway will offer ten promising occupational groups; the middle-skills pathway will offer five; while the high school pathway will offer just one. As demand for more education and skills increases upskilling will continue through both increasing demand for higher-skilled workers within occupations and faster growth of occupations that demand workers with higher levels of education. These dynamics will continue to shift opportunity to the bachelor’s degree and middle-skills pathways.
By 2031 only 36% of all jobs on the high school pathway will be good compared to 79% on the bachelor’s degree pathway and 52% on the middle-skills pathway.
The middle-skills pathway will offer various good jobs including many in blue-collar occupational groups such as construction and extraction production healthcare professional technical protective services occupations. The blue-collar good job opportunities on the middle-skills pathway will be bolstered partly by federal infrastructure investments in recent years according to the report.
“Several trends point to a more favorable market for middle-skills workers relative to previous decades: slower labor force growth fewer college graduates federal investments in infrastructure innovation generative AI capabilities allowing businesses to hire middle-skills workers for roles that previously required more education,” said Artem Gulish senior federal policy advisor co-author.
On the high school pathway ten out of twenty-two occupational groups will see net declines in good jobs even as many same occupations see growth numbers good jobs bachelor’s degree middle-skills pathways due upskilling.
The construction extraction occupational group is prime example upskilling dynamic. In 2021 high school-educated largest share construction extraction between add net new while decline
Key Findings:
- The bachelor’s degree largest number (58.2 million) has ten promising
- Managerial professional office largest source accounting nearly one-third all –84%
- Other significant sources include these groups: education training library healthcare computer mathematical science.
- The middle-skills have sixteen-point-four million offers five: construction healthcare protective installation maintenance repair production.
- By thirteen-point-two million diploma less only one occupation: installation maintenance repair
To view full visit cew.georgetown.edu/goodjobsprojections2031
