When summertime arrives in New York City in 2065, the temperature is expected to reach an average of 91.6 degrees Fahrenheit, compared to the historic average of 84.6 degrees, according to a future climate scenario by the U.S. Green Building Council’s WeatherShift tool. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced aggressively, the heat index could reach 126.7 degrees on the hottest day by 2065 and 143.6 by 2090.
Urban planning can mitigate some of this heat, but real estate owners need to prepare for prolonged periods where indoor living becomes necessary during summer months.
“In a way, it’s not a mystery,” said Clinton Andrews, a professor at Rutgers University specializing in urban planning and policy development. He noted that successful cities have been built in warm climates before but emphasized that extreme heat combined with humidity can cause structural issues such as thermal cracks in masonry.
Andrews pointed out thermal cracks and gaps between different materials as major concerns for New York City's buildings. This issue is exemplified by the spider web of cracks on the Lasa marble floor of the Oculus transit hub in Lower Manhattan.
HVAC systems will be critical in addressing these challenges. According to Scott Frank, a managing partner at Jaros, Baum & Bolles, HVAC systems account for about 10 percent of construction costs for new Class A office buildings today. He recommends increasing system capacity by 3 to 5 percent to handle future heat levels, which would add approximately 0.5 percent to total project costs.
Frank mentioned that predicting future temperatures involves many assumptions and often advises clients to prepare for New York’s future climate resembling Washington D.C.'s current climate.
Today’s Americans spend about 90 percent of their lives indoors year-round—a figure likely to increase as high temperatures become more common. During a recent heat wave, New York Governor Kathy Hochul advised residents to stay inside with air conditioning if possible.
Mayor Eric Adams has recommended using one of the city’s cooling centers for those without air conditioning at home. However, infrastructure failures like the Third Avenue Bridge malfunctioning due to heat expansion illustrate ongoing challenges.
New York City's million buildings face various factors impacting their thermal resilience including building envelope materials and design elements like solar shading and ventilation.
Despite these challenges, Joanna Frank from the Center for Active Design (CfAD) points out that simple measures like light-colored roofs and trees can significantly reduce urban heat island effects.
The CfAD's Fitwel certification promotes design standards prioritizing public health and environmental needs. Examples include Tishman Speyer’s Rockefeller Center which uses pale limestone facades and tree-filled courtyards for cooling effects.
“Many parts of the world have experienced extreme heat for millennia,” said Joanna Frank. “It isn’t that populations can’t thrive in that heat because they can.”
However, Andrews cautioned against designs suitable only for hot climates since New York experiences all four seasons unlike places such as Dubai which faced infrastructure failures during heavy rainfalls this spring.
Joanna Frank sees potential in New York's Public Design Commission's involvement in promoting efficient policy changes despite bureaucratic hurdles elsewhere in construction trades.
“To include people’s perspective is what we’re talking about here,” she added. “How do you create a built environment prioritizing quality of life and health?”
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