In testimony scheduled for tonight, NJBIA Deputy Chief Government Affairs Officer Ray Cantor will address the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) regarding its proposed Land Use rules. Cantor argues that these rules are based on outdated science and could result in no-build zones along the Jersey Shore and river communities.
Cantor will suggest that the DEP should prioritize enhancing coastal community resilience rather than promoting a "managed retreat" from these areas. He is set to present his views during a public hearing at Ocean County College, part of the DEP’s 90-day public comment period for a series of Resilient Environments and Landscapes (REAL) reforms.
The proposed regulations would establish "inundation risk zones" (IRZs) for new, expanded, redeveloped, or substantially improved developments. Criteria for building or rebuilding in an IRZ include constructing structures five feet higher than existing flood elevation standards—a requirement Cantor claims may not be feasible for many properties due to other stringent conditions.
"Most importantly, the IRZ will be considered a critical environmental site and subject the whole property to a 3% impervious cover standard," Cantor explains. "Three percent is, by definition, a 'no build' standard."
Cantor criticizes the DEP's reliance on data from a 2019 non-peer-reviewed Rutgers report predicting 5.1 feet of sea level rise by 2100. This projection is based on a model with only a 17% confidence level.
"In the climate science world, 'low confidence' is as low as it gets," Cantor says. He notes that two major studies since 2019 have rejected the assumptions underlying this projection. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regarded as the "gold standard" in climate science, has also dismissed the DEP's projection.
Cantor states that although the authors of the STAP report analyzed these recent studies and compared them to their 2019 projections, these findings are not included in the over-1,000-page rule proposal.
"Use of low-confidence assumptions is not how the Department has ever used science to support a regulatory standard," Cantor asserts. He suggests adopting a more likely sea level rise standard of two feet, aligning with generally accepted national and international projections and making New Jersey highly protective against sea level rise.
"If sea level rise is shown to be trending higher, we have 75 years to adjust," he concludes.
To see Cantor’s full testimony, click here.
