New research from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) highlights impending shortages in over 100 well-paying middle-skills occupations. Middle-skills jobs, which require more than a high school diploma but less than a four-year degree, are essential for various sectors including medical, public services, and critical infrastructure.
The CEW report emphasizes that institutions providing middle-skill credentials must adjust their production of certificates and associate degrees to meet future demand. "First, middle-skills providers need to recruit more individuals without a college degree to attend their institutions," the report states. It further suggests enhancing career counseling at high schools and credential-granting institutions to ensure students make informed decisions about their studies.
The report also calls for increased collaboration between employers and educational institutions to offer more work-based learning opportunities. This is particularly crucial for occupations facing anticipated shortages.
Forecasts indicate significant shortages in many middle-skills occupations across regions like New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania. High-paying middle-skills jobs are defined as those where early-career workers without a four-year degree can earn $53,000 or more annually, with potential earnings rising to $80,000 by mid-career.
The report categorizes these jobs into five groups: blue-collar; management; protective services; STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics); and healthcare. Notable occupations include police officers, firefighters, facilities managers, information security analysts, power plant operators, radiologic technicians, and construction equipment operators.
The blue-collar sector faces the most severe nationwide shortage of qualified workers in 52 of the 55 largest U.S. metro areas. More moderate shortages are expected in management, protective services, and STEM fields in major metro areas. Although only 10 major metro areas are projected to face shortages in high-paying STEM occupations, many smaller metro areas and rural communities will experience severe deficits. Current credential production is expected to meet only 60% of national demand through 2032.
Healthcare is the only occupational group projected to have an oversupply of credentials in highly populated metro areas but not necessarily in rural regions. Middle-skill healthcare roles include nurses, radiologic technologists and technicians, respiratory therapists, sonographers, paramedics among others.
In the NY-NJ-PA region specifically—which includes counties such as Bergen and Essex—there is a slight oversupply with a “healthcare credential production to job ratio of 1.42.” Conversely, the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington region faces an undersupply with a ratio of only 0.58.
The oversupply trend reflects increasing demand for workers with bachelor’s degrees in healthcare roles traditionally filled by those with middle-skill credentials. The proportion of workers with middle-skill education in healthcare dropped from 46% in 2010 to 25% in 2022; this could decline further to just 10% by 2032 if current trends persist.
Kathryn Peltier Campbell from CEW highlighted that while not all metro areas will face credential shortages for high-paying middle-skills jobs, where they do exist they could be significant. "Most middle-skills providers would need to more than double their credential production to meet local demand through 2032," Campbell noted.
The full report titled "Missed Opportunities: Credential Shortages in Programs Aligned with High-Paying Middle-Skills Jobs in 55 US Metro Areas" is available online along with an accompanying data tool designed for regional planners and educational institutions.
