Garden State Initiative (GSI) has collaborated with energy policy expert Mark P. Mills to produce a research report analyzing the New Jersey Energy Master Plan (EMP). The report, titled “The Aspirations and Economics of the New Jersey Energy Master Plan,” was unveiled at GSI’s Annual Policy Forum in New Brunswick on May 1, 2024. Attendees included academics, legislators, journalists, and other stakeholders.
Mark P. Mills is known for his work as Director of the National Center for Energy Analytics and as a faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s school of engineering. He has contributed to major media outlets and served in the Reagan White House Science Office.
Audrey Lane, President of GSI, stated that "Governor Murphy’s mandate that New Jersey attain 100 percent clean energy by 2035 is a laudable goal, but it’s not realistic." She emphasized that "the goals set forth in the NJ EMP are purely aspirational," citing an estimated $40 billion cost that could drive people and jobs out of New Jersey.
The report questions whether New Jersey can meet its electricity needs using wind and solar technologies by 2035 while reducing CO2 emissions. It evaluates EMP's seven strategies to transition from hydrocarbons.
Mills highlighted challenges: "New Jersey currently obtains over 90 percent of all the state’s energy from hydrocarbons," adding that transitioning away will have significant economic impacts.
The report critiques each strategy:
- Strategy #1 on transportation suggests minimal CO2 reductions with electric vehicles.
- Strategy #2 links renewable energy deployment with higher electricity costs.
- Strategy #3 indicates increased efficiency leads to higher demand.
- Strategy #4 predicts limited future savings in building energy use.
- Strategy #5 points to small changes in carbon intensity with decarbonization efforts.
- Strategy #6 warns against high energy costs impacting low-income communities.
- Strategy #7 claims some clean energy policies conflict with innovation objectives.
Lane concluded that "this report provides a reality check on aspirational policy" and aims to inform residents about potential impacts on their lives.
