College enrollment officials are anticipating a decline in the number of applicants starting next year, a trend expected to persist for the next decade. This forecast is linked to demographic changes that began during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009.
James Hughes, Dean Emeritus of Rutgers University's Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, explained that fertility rates fell significantly during the recession. "We’re facing the cliff, because those born in ’08 … they’re just entering their high school graduation years," he stated. The fertility rate dropped from a population-sustaining 2.0 to 2.1 lifetime births per woman before the recession to 1.6 lifetime births per woman by 2023.
Hughes noted there was a temporary increase in birth rates post-pandemic, but this was followed by a continued decline. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicates that this "impending demographic cliff," along with low high school graduation rates and fewer students moving on to college, could result in college closures nationwide.
"Over the next two decades, every year the number of college-age students is going to deline," Hughes said.
