With less than three weeks remaining before the New Jersey gubernatorial election on November 4, a poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) shows Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by seven points. The poll, released Friday, puts Sherrill at 52% and Ciattarelli at 45%, with 3% of voters undecided.
The survey was carried out by Braun Research in Princeton from October 9 to October 15, following the final debate between the two candidates. In FDU’s previous July poll, Sherrill held an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli (45% to 37%), with a higher share—16%—of undecided voters.
Other recent polls also indicate a tightening race. A Quinnipiac poll published Wednesday reports a six-point lead for Sherrill (50% to 44%), while a Fox News poll released Thursday shows her ahead by five points (50% to 45%).
Dan Cassino, executive director of the FDU poll, noted that party loyalty has increased since the summer. "93% of Democrats now say that they’ll vote for Sherrill (up 6 points from July), and 96% of Republicans say that they’ll back Ciattarelli (up 10 points from July)," Cassino said.
The FDU survey found some differences in voter certainty. Among Republicans supporting Ciattarelli, 11% said they would “probably,” rather than “definitely” vote for him; among Democrats backing Sherrill, that figure was lower at 7%. The proportion of undecided likely voters has dropped sharply from July’s 16% to just 3%.
"Undecided voters have almost all made up their minds, and partisans have put aside any misgivings and lined up behind their candidates," Cassino stated.
The margin of error for the latest FDU poll is plus or minus 3.4%.
Sherrill has served as a U.S. Representative for New Jersey’s 11th District since 2019 and is a former naval officer. Ciattarelli is a businessman and former state assemblyman who lost narrowly to Governor Phil Murphy in the previous election cycle. Murphy cannot seek re-election this year due to constitutional term limits.
Further details about each candidate’s policy positions are available on their campaign websites: jack4nj.com and mikiesherrill.com.
