With the inauguration of a new U.S. president and changes in Congress, business owners are considering the potential impact on health care insurance costs. Joel Cantor, director of the Rutgers Center for State Health Policy, noted that health care "was not a big issue in the debates," but past actions might indicate future policies.
Donald Trump's previous term nearly resulted in the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), as he was "one vote away," according to Cantor. He suggested that Trump might attempt to reduce ACA subsidy funding, potentially affecting affordability and market stability.
The pandemic saw an increase in ACA subsidies, which are scheduled to end in 2025. A 2017 Congressional Budget Office report estimated that around 4 million people could lose coverage if these subsidies expire. The same report projected a federal deficit reduction of approximately $338 billion through 2027 if the ACA mandate had been repealed.
Cantor expressed concern about possible premium increases under Trump's policies. He attributed recent health care cost rises partly to mergers and acquisitions among hospitals. While President Biden enforced antitrust laws, Cantor doubts similar enforcement would occur under Trump, potentially increasing costs due to hospital monopolies.
Additionally, Trump's interest in re-importing drugs from countries like Canada may conflict with his proposed tariffs on imports, possibly raising prices for drugs and medical equipment.
Cantor also mentioned Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as head of the Department of Health and Human Services as a factor that could raise costs further due to Kennedy's stances against vaccine mandates and fluoride use, which Cantor believes could lead to increased illness and higher health care expenses.
